Risk Day 2007
Risk Management in Financial and Energy Markets
Industry Day at the
International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics,
For the Center of Competence Finance in Zurich
Walter Farkas, firstname.lastname@example.org
Juri Hinz, email@example.com
ETH Zürich, Main Building, Rämistrasse 101, 8092 Zürich;
Lecture Theatre HG F5.
Thursday, July 19, 2007, full day
Important information concerning registration:
- This Industry Day within ICIAM 2007
Chair of Financial Mathematics from ETH Zurich,
Prof. Freddy Delbaen, and
free of charge for those who register before July 17, 2007
electronically following the registration link
- Interested participants who are already registered participants at the ICIAM 2007 do not need
to register for this Industry Day!
- Unregistered participants at the ICIAM 2007 and unregistered participants at the Risk Day 2007
are also welcome to attend, but they will need to pay CHF 100 in cash. This cash payment has to be done at the
ICIAM 2007 Congress Office located that day in the main building of the University of Zurich,
KOL-F-103, Rämistrasse 71.
This is due to the fact that the
ICIAM 2007 will have about 3,000 participants and there are security reasons that require a registration of the people.
at ICIAM 2007 Congress Office located that day
in the main building of the University of Zurich,
room KOL-F-103, Rämistrasse 71.
ICIAM Invited Lecture
Prof. Dr. Nicole El Karoui
(Ecole Polytechnique, Palaisseau)
Title: Dynamic risk measures and optimal risk transfer in financial markets
Prof. Nicole El Karoui is ICIAM Invited Speaker. Her lecture is closely related to mathematical aspects of risk management
and will provide an excellent start of the Risk Day 2007.
The program of this Industry Day is as follows:
Dr. Simone Farinelli,
Credit & Country Risk Control, UBS, Zurich, Switzerland
Title: Generation of Consistent Market and Credit
Scenarios: The Calibration of a Geometric Model
Abstract: A scenario generator for both market
and credit risk drivers is developed. On the basis of historical
data, financial time series are projected into the future. The
foundations were given in 1998 by Andrew Smith, who developed
a coherent mathematical framework applicable to all stochastic
investment models, allowing for features commonly believed to
be essential and/or desirable: positive interest rates, mean
reversion (where appropriate), full term structures, efficient
markets, absence of arbitrage.
The model consists in two parts:
- a geometrical part, where the concepts of gauge, deflator
and term structure for every
quantity modelled is introduced, and
- a stochastic part, where a stochastic model is applied to a
minimal set of gauges (called
principal gauges) to generate the scenario simulations.
The stochastic part is calibrated for the special choice of a
||Dr. Jens Wiedmann, LGT Capital Management,
Title: Tests of Covariance Matrices
Abstract: How can be decided, which kind of estimator
of covariance matrices is more suitable to reflect the expected
portfolio risk. A kind of Maximum-Likelihood-test is introduced
for solving this problem. Some concrete test results concerning
different bond portfolios are shown. For these bond portfolios
the simple historic covariance matrix and covariance matrices of
two-factor- and three-factor-models have been tested.
Prof. Dr. Hans-Jürgen Wolter,
CRO and Chief Actuary, Swiss Life, Switzerland
Title: Risk-based Capital Models in Life Insurance
Abstract: A number of recent initiatives such
as the preparation for Solvency II for instance have led to an
increase in the extent to which insurance companies manage their
risk and capital. Until now, economic capital models have been
developed by the best part of the global insurance industry; it
is no longer the domain of the sophisticated insurance undertakings.
And yet the design of economic capital models is still under way.
The aim of this talk is to discuss the characteristics of proper
capital models. Often, the requirements are controversial. A model
that is impeccable from a conceptual point of view might be hard
to implement. We conclude with some remarks on risk measurement,
motivated by the fact that some European insurance regulators have
begun to demand for multi-period risk measures.
Dr. Jörg Behrens, Partner,
Head of Financial Risk Management Central Europe, Ernst & Young
Title: Strategic Risk Management: Ideas and
Abstract: While risk management is highly sophisticated
and forms an integral part of the financial services industry,
most firms still struggle to benefit from their analytical know-how
when it comes to strategic planning. We discuss problems and ideas
to bridge the gap between the two worlds.
Dr. Oleg Zakharov, General Manager Europe, Lacima
Title: In Full Swing: Optimizing Portfolios
of Flexible Gas Contracts
Abstract: After presenting a brief history
of gas markets and the origin of swing contracts we discuss realistic
examples of swing contracts and Stochastic Dynamic Programming
approaches in optimizing a single swing contract.
Further topics treated are the importance of hedging in forward
markets and liquidity considerations and the value optimization
conditional on limited risk.
Dr. Alexander Boogert, Essent Trading BV, The Netherlands
Title: Gas Portfolio and Transport Optimization
Abstract: The transport of natural gas has received
significant attention in the last months with the large price spikes
in the UK facing sudden cold weather and the flow stop from Russia
to Ukraine. Transport is a necessity in a world where gas sources
are far removed from the gas demand, and in which a gas portfolio
easily spans several countries. Meanwhile, the range of options
within a gas portfolio is growing with an increasing number of
instruments and increasing international gas trading. This has
led to a situation where decisions have become non-trivial. The
objective of this article is to describe the construction of an
integrated approach for gas portfolio and transport optimization
Prof. Dr. Yves Smeers, Universite Catholique de
Louvain & Electrabel, Belgium.
Title: Investment models in restructured electricity
markets subject to risk
Abstract: Capacity expansion optimization models
dominated the area of investment in generation during the former
days of the regulated electricity sector. These models have lost
some of their appeal today and other tools, some inspired
by the theory of real options, have replaced them. We reconsider
the old capacity expansion model that we expand into equilibrium
models in a risky environment. For the sake of tractability and
robustness we assume no market power. We first model risk by assuming
firms with different cost of capital; this equilibrium model deviates
minimally from the usual capacity expansion model (which assumes
a single cost of capital). Alternatively we also consider that
the risk attitude of firms is represented through risk functions;
this forces one to consider a stochastic equilibrium model. We
compare the approach to equilibrium (not optimization) models of
the real option type.
ICIAM Public Lecture
Prof. Ivar Ekeland
Title: The best of all possible worlds: the idea of optimization
Prof. Ivar Ekeland is ICIAM Invited Speaker. His lecture will provide an excellent finish of the Risk Day 2007.
Print the program:
Simone Farinelli holds a PhD in Mathematics from the
Swiss Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ) and works for UBS Credit & Country
Risk Control. His main research interests include asset liability management,
portfolio optimization, fixed income modelling and credit risk.
Jens Wiedmann works in the Quantitative Research at
LGT Capital Management. He is also responsible for the optimisation of
global bond portfolios and for the bond risk models. He holds a Ph.D.
in mathematics and started at LGT nine years ago.
Hans-Jürgen Wolter is Chief Risk Officer and Chief
Actuary at SwissLife and Professor for Financial Markets at the University
of St. Gall in Switzerland.
Jörg Behrens is a partner of Ernst & Young in Switzerland and
leads their Financial Risk Management practice in Central Europe. Prior
to joining Ernst & Young, Jörg has led the Quantitative Risk
Team of Andersen in Zürich, a position he assumed after 7 years
with UBS in investment banking and risk management based in London and
Zürich. He received his Ph.D. for his research in particle physics
at ETH Zurich/CERN.
At Lacima Group, Oleg Zakharov is responsible for developing new business
opportunities and for supporting existing clients. He has over 17 years
academic and industry experience, 8 of those in the energy and financial
industry advising on risk management and pricing methods to developing
and implementing risk management and trading systems. Before joining
Lacima he was VP, Financial Engineering at KWI where he advised gas and
power market players on risk management issues and was responsible for
the analytical content of a multi-commodity trading and risk management
system. Prior to that, he held positions with a number of banks and commercial
organisations developing and commercialising market and credit risk systems.
Oleg has an MSc in Computer Science and a PhD in Physics from the University
of California at Berkeley.
Alexander Boogert works as a quantitative analyst at Essent Energy Trading
BV in the Netherlands. In this role he provides quantitative support
to the Risk Management department, while performing long-term research.
Previous research includes the modelling of short-term electricity prices
from the stochastic (mean-reverting jump diffusion) and economic (supply-demand)
perspective. Currently his attention is focussed on the valuation of
physical storage and the modelling of forward curve movements.
Yves Smeers is Professor of Industrial Engineering
at the faculty of Applied Sciences of the Universite Catholique de Louvain,
in Belgium. He is also Scientific Adviser to the Belgian power company
Electrabel. An engineer and an economist by background Yves Smeers has
been working in energy modelling now for more than 25 years. His initial
interests in the field dealt with global multi-energy models. In the
last ten year he has been concentrating on problems related to restructuring.
He currently works on models of market power, transmission pricing, and
risk management in the gas and electricity industries
Center of Competence Finance in Zurich (CCFZ)
The Center of Competence Finance in Zurich (CCFZ) is an internationally
interdisciplinary competence center jointly run by the University of
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH) and can draw on
of more than 45 academic chairs from the two institutions, mainly in
the areas of
finance, financial mathematics, insurance, economics, law and computer
The objective of the Center of Competence Finance in Zurich is to support
coordinate the relevant research and teaching activities of the University
It is the knowledge transfer platform of the two universities and supports
with other partners in academia and the financial industry. In addition,
CCFZ serves as an information platform and a hub for the financial service
regulatory authorities and the public at large.
Ms. Galit Shoham,
HG G21.3 (IFOR),
Phone 044/632 40 16,
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Last update: May 15, 2007