var sms = '<div id="sms_bulletin">  <div id="sms_header">  <div class="do_not_print" id="arrow_left"><a href="?next=-25"><img src="//www2.math.ethz.ch/smsjs/images/arrow_left.png"/></a></div><div class="do_not_print" id="arrow_right"><a href="?next=-23"><img src="//www2.math.ethz.ch/smsjs/images/arrow_right.png"/></a></div>    <div class="sms_title">      <span style="float: left;">SMS</span>      <span>SWISS MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY</span>      <span style="float: right;">SMG</span>    </div>    <div class="sms_info">      <span style="float: left; width: 250px;">Bulletin no. 6</span>      <span style="float: right; text-align:right; width: 250px;">29.1 - 2.2.2024</span>      <span style="text-align: center; display: block; width: 250px; margin: auto; position: relative;">Winter Break 2023/24</span>    </div>  </div>  <div></div>  <div id="sms_content">    <div class="day">      <div class="day_title">        Monday, January 29      </div>      <div class="day_content">        <div class="day_content_item no_event">        No events scheduled today!        </div>      </div>    </div>    <div class="day">      <div class="day_title">        Tuesday, January 30      </div>      <div class="day_content">        <div class="day_content_item no_event">        No events scheduled today!        </div>      </div>    </div>    <div class="day">      <div class="day_title">        Wednesday, January 31      </div>      <div class="day_content">        <div class="day_content_item no_event">        No events scheduled today!        </div>      </div>    </div>    <div class="day">      <div class="day_title">        Thursday, February 1      </div>      <div class="day_content">        <div class="day_content_item normal"><div class="event_location uni_zh"><a class="external" href="https://ethz.ch">ETH Z&uuml;rich</a></div><div class="event_type"><a class="external" href="https://stat.ethz.ch/events/zukost">ZüKoSt Zürcher Kolloquium über Statistik</a></div><br /><div class="event_speaker"> Andrew Vickers (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York)</div><div class="event_title">If calibration, discrimination, Brier, lift gain, precision recall, F1, Youden, AUC, and 27 other accuracy metrics can’t tell you if a prediction model (or diagnostic test, or marker) is of clinical value, what should you use instead? <span class="abstract-button do_not_print">abstract</span></div><div class="abstract-text" style="display: none"><strong>Abstract:</strong><br />A typical paper on a prediction model (or diagnostic test or marker) presents some accuracy metrics - say, an AUC of 0.75 and a calibration plot that doesn’t look too bad – and then recommends that the model (or test or marker) can be used in clinical practice. But how high an AUC (or Brier or F1 score) is high enough? What level of miscalibration would be too much? The problem is redoubled when comparing two different models (or tests or markers). What if one prediction model has better discrimination but the other has better calibration? What if one diagnostic test has better sensitivity but worse specificity? Note that it doesn’t help to state a general preference, such as “if we think sensitivity is more important, we should take the test with the higher sensitivity” because this does not allow to evaluate trade-offs (e.g. test A with sensitivity of 80% and specificity of 70% vs. test B with sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 30%). The talk will start by showing a series of everyday examples of prognostic models, demonstrating that it is difficult to tell which is the better model, or whether to use a model at all, on the basis of routinely reported accuracy metrics such as AUC, Brier or calibration. We then give the background to decision curve analysis, a net benefit approach first introduced about 15 years ago, and show how this methodology gives clear answers about whether to use a model (or test or marker) and which is best. Decision curve analysis has been recommended in editorials in many major journals, including JAMA, JCO and the Annals of Internal Medicine, and is very widely used in the medical literature, with well over 1000 empirical uses a year.We are pleased to invite you - see you there!</div><div class="event_time">15:30 &bull; AKI Lecture Hall 1&2, Hirschengraben 86, 8001 Zürich</div>        </div>      </div>    </div>    <div class="day">      <div class="day_title">        Friday, February 2      </div>      <div class="day_content">        <div class="day_content_item normal"><div class="event_location uni_ge"><a class="external" href="https://unige.ch">Université de Genève</a></div><div class="event_type"><a class="external" href="https://sites.google.com/view/pm-seminar/home">Physical Mathematics Seminar</a></div><br /><div class="event_speaker"> Andrew Neitzke (Yale)</div><div class="event_title">Abelianization of Virasoro conformal blocks <span class="abstract-button do_not_print">abstract</span></div><div class="abstract-text" style="display: none"><strong>Abstract:</strong><br />iven a Riemann surface C and a central charge c, one can define the notion of Virasoro conformal block. Virasoro conformal blocks capture universal features of conformal field theory on C. I will describe a new scheme for constructing Virasoro conformal blocks at central charge c=1, by relating them to simpler "abelian" objects, namely conformal blocks for the Heisenberg algebra, on a branched double cover of C. The key new ingredient is a spectral network on the surface C. Some particularly important Virasoro conformal blocks at c=1 are also known as "tau functions", and I will explain what abelianization tells us about them. This is joint work in progress with Qianyu Hao, inspired by work of Coman-Longhi-Pomoni-Teschner, Iwaki, Marino and others. </div><div class="event_time">10:30 &bull; Université de Genève, Conseil Général 7-9, Room 1-05</div>        </div>      </div>    </div>  </div>  <div id="sms_footer">    address: Alessandra Naldi Windler, Departement Mathematik, HG G 51.4, ETH Zurich, Raemistrasse 101, CH-8092 Zurich<br />    email: <a href="mailto:bulletin@math.ch">bulletin@math.ch</a> | phone: +41 44 632 3684 | url: <a href="https://math.ch">https://math.ch</a>    <br /><br /><img src="//www2.math.ethz.ch/smsjs/sms_logo.gif" width="150" alt="SMS/SMG Logo" title="SMS/SMG Logo" />  </div></div>';